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This will be an election year like no other. The coronavirus pandemic brought traditional campaigning to a screeching halt. And in the battle for Congress, both Democrats and Republicans are trying to translate this moment into a victorious Election Day in November. Here's NPR congressional correspondent Susan Davis.
SUSAN DAVIS, BYLINE: Top strategists in both parties agree on this - coronavirus will define the 2020 elections.
STEVEN LAW: We all know that both the health crisis of coronavirus and then the economic impact that's followed will likely be the most dominant issue - perhaps the only issue - that voters are thinking about when they're deciding who to support in the fall elections.
DAVIS: Steven Law runs the Senate Leadership Fund, the top Republican super PAC working to hold the party's Senate majority, which is in play this November. Law says moments of crisis tend to favor incumbents, which could benefit Republicans.
LAW: Well, as we saw after 9/11, crises tend to advantage incumbents if they rise to the occasion and do their jobs well. You know, you've got responsibilities. Voters expect you to perform them. And most importantly in a crisis, they pay attention to what you're doing.
DAVIS: There is some indication that a growing number of people think Congress is doing a good job. A Gallup survey last week showed Congress's low approval ratings jumped by a net gain of 16 points in the past month, its highest point in a decade, after Congress approved a $2 trillion aid package to address the pandemic.
If the moment favors incumbents, that's also good news for House Democrats, who are currently favored to hold their majority. Here's Illinois Congresswoman Cheri Bustos, who's running their campaign operation.
CHERI BUSTOS: This is a moment in history. And how we as the majority in Congress - how we behave, how we campaign, how we treat people, how we fight for people - all of that will matter, come November of 2020.
DAVIS: Democrats had already planned to make health care a central focus of all of their campaigns this fall. J.B. Poersch runs a top Democratic Senate super PAC. He said the pandemic has heightened the issue in voters' minds, and that fundamentally benefits Democratic candidates.
JB POERSCH: It all relates to it. Coronavirus makes it - it's showing the urgency of the health care debate in real time.
DAVIS: While Democrats feel like they have the upper hand if health care is a deciding issue this November, Republican strategists like Dan Conston say voters could be focused on the economic turnaround by then.
DAN CONSTON: A conversation about dollars and cents and economic growth is fundamentally a very good argument for Republicans to be running on this fall.
DAVIS: Conston is running a top super PAC for House Republicans. He noted the public's views on President Trump continue to track largely along familiar partisan lines.
Tim Phillips is president of the right-leaning advocacy group Americans for Prosperity. He cautions that no one should rely on the usual election year metrics in this moment.
TIM PHILLIPS: The old measure might see job approval, favorability ratings, the ballot question. People's view of the economy - is it good or bad right now? - I don't think those are going to hold water the way they used to do so.
DAVIS: Phillips said moments of crisis can depolarize more voters, and he thinks the major impact for 2020 is a much bigger pool of swing voters than strategists were betting on just weeks ago.
PHILLIPS: This crisis will make this election cycle the most unpredictable election cycle in modern American history.
DAVIS: And it means campaigns will be shifting their strategies all the way to November.
Susan Davis, NPR News, Washington. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
